Thinkofone's Blog

One person's thoughts may change the world

The global view of the TPP…

tppSo Trump won. I had been joking about moving to Canada if he won, knowing that he would not, but, as the weeks got closer, I saw Hillary’s fragility in two ways.

  1. 1. Message. She had no message. Many of her TV ads were about how bad Trump is. That actually worked against her. Those who supported him were not going to be swayed by that, they were going to vote for him anyway. I would have changed it to 3 ads of policies and ideas vs 1 ad speaking to why not to vote for him.
  2. He( Trump)  campaigned  in many of the states Bernie had beaten her in. Bernie won Michigan and Wisconsin, He won every state north of Massachusetts. She won Pennsylvania, but not by much, and their camp knew that Pennsylvania was in play because it was still a rust belt state outside of Philadelphia. The Ohio valley is essentially the same as West Virginia, displaced coal and factory workers who have felt they have been forgotten.

I will speculate on the Trump victory later, if I feel like it. What I really want to talk about is the Trans-Pacific partnership or TPP.The TPP is like any other partnership, nations working together for common goals. NATO, the  Warsaw Pact, the UN, the INF,  NAFTA, the Allies, the Axis, all having common goals of protection, assistance, economic security, world domination, etc….  Now, before you start taking sides on the TPP let’s look at some other interesting trade organizations.

APEC

Australia, US, Brunei,Canada,Chile,Hong Kong,Indonesia,Japan,Malaysia,Mexico,New Zealand,PNG,Peru,Philippines,Singapore,South Korea,Taiwan,Thailand,China,,Vietnam,Russia

APEC is an economic cooperation between the above nations. It was formed in 1989, which is pre-NAFTA, which was a sour point in the elections which Bernie, and our new dictator Trump has pointed out. NAFTA is the rust belt scourge, and Adolf, I mean Donald, rode Clinton hard on that Treaty because Bill Clinton endorsed it even though it was first initiated under George Bush..  APEC also wants to add free trade amongst it members. Hmmm, starting to sound like TPP. India has also petitioned to join the group. The issue with this organization when it comes to free trade: China and Russia. The U.S. would never want that to happen with those two in a global economic playing field without some kinds of provisions.

BRICS

Brazil,India,South Africa,Russia,China

BRICS was created in 2001, and the money string puller behind all of this is….Goldman Sachs. This is an economically powerful group, and poised to out produce the G7 by 2027.

G20

Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,France,Germany,India,Indonesia,Italy,Japan,Mexico, Russia,Saudi Arabia,South Africa,South Korea,Turkey,UK,US

US

The G20  is the world economic club.  It was founded in 1999 with the aim of studying, reviewing, and promoting high-level discussion of policy issues pertaining to the promotion of international financial stability. This is the post WWII organization formed along with the WTO, World Bank, and the International Monetary fund. They focus on economic governance, and building and sustaining prosperity. I wouldn’t doubt if Goldman Sachs is behind this one as well.

Shanghai cooperation organisation

Kazakhstan,China,Russia,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan ( India, Pakistan )

Formed in 2001, this seems to be a post Warsaw Pact union on the surface with a bunch of new members to replace those who bolted for NATO. Full of like minded nations ( capitalistic communism ) with political, economic, and military organization in full cooperation.

China

U.N. Security council

France, UK, US, Russia, China

The Security Council was created out of the failings of the league of Nations, and after WWII as one of the 6 principal organs of the United nations. The council is charged with international peace and security, establishment of sanctions, and military action.

What does this have to do with TPP and our election?

Everything. Why? Because Trump promised to pull out of the TPP and to supposedly bring jobs back. If you look closely at the lists above, the United States only belongs to 3 of the 5 groups. These are all closely tied economic groups who are trying to change the world, closely monitoring their self control, economic activity,  and demise. We are living in financial warfare.  It may seem like we are living in a time of war, but actually, it has been more peaceful than most. Most if not all of these groups have an economic as well as a monetary component to them. They are trying to grow their economic progress through trade and cooperation. Just like the United States could not afford to be neutral during WWI or WWll, this time it could be left behind in the global marketplace. Here are the countries of the TPP:

Australia,Canada,Japan,Malaysia,Mexico,Peru,United States,Vietnam,Chile,Brunei,Singapore, and New Zealand.

Now, I’m not advocating TPP. But I am looking at the bigger picture. China is now moving away from the jobs Trump wants to bring back. China now realizes the importance of more highly skilled production and labor force, and they want a major piece of it. They don’t care about those same jobs that came plentiful from the United States since the 90s. They want more than their “Dollar per day”. Once China gets both, what will be left? Not much, trust me. Those manufacturing jobs that China is now willing to let go are going to their partners in other trade groups that I specified earlier.

What the United States seems to be trying to do is to “bring up” the countries in these particular groups they belong to, and “leave out” China. This way, costs stay low, and the United States gets what they really want, a China alternative. Being an economic rival is something the United States does not want to contribute to. China is getting too powerful economically for the United States to handle.

The Ford EcoSport is produced in India, and will be sold in the US as well. The Envision, produced by China, will not take the place of some other Chinese cars that failed to get to the United States because of regulatory restrictions. So the United States has only one choice, set up a trade agreement group that will buttress against ( economically ) those other groups that will be formidable competition in the future. It seems car companies, which are multinational corporations, are going to build these plants and produce product in the cheapest places they can produce in. So as a country, by the United States doing nothing will lead to failure, doing it right breeds success. All this is unknown territory, but one thing has been proven out, NAFTA has lost jobs in the United States, the A.F.L.-C.I.O. contends about 700,000 alone. So, the question remains, “Why would TPP be different than NAFTA?”

tpp2

The unequal playing field

We all know why companies move jobs elsewhere, cost. During the horrendous job losses during the late 70’s moving forward, there were several trends that precipitated it.

  • The late 70’s oil shock, that forced American auto companies to change the efficiency of their cars.
  • Japanese car production reaches critical mass, high quality, good price, great gas mileage. American car companies were caught flat footed. Poor quality, big, poor gas mileage,  and boxy designs.
  • American car manufactures began the blame game, blaming unions costs and quality, while the unions blamed the manufactures for poor working conditions,  poorly designed cars, and wage stagnation.
  • The cost of producing and retooling in the United States was almost 3 to 1 versus their Japanese competitor.

It got so bad that to give the American auto manufactures some breathing room, the US forced the Japanese to begin manufacturing some of their vehicles here in order to do two things:

  • While building their plants, the US manufacturers could build alternative vehicles to complete.
  • They would have to hire American employees, which helped a sagging economy.
  • Allow automakers to look for alternative places to build cars. The north was a union stronghold. The transformation was beginning. Cars produced outside of the traditional manufacturing north.
  • Union busting. By giving auto manufactures large tax abatements, they enticed Japanese auto builders to go south to produce their cars, and unions would have very little “say” at these facilities.

This was the beginning of rolling back wages fought hard for by unions, but at the same time, treating the car company like an adversary and not a partner. Auto union members slowly declined over the years, along with their monetary and political influence.

Donald Trump may get what he wants out of the TPP, or the destruction of it. NAFTA was a western hemisphere reaction to the EU, but EU nations were aligned with similar technology and education, NAFTA was not. Mexico had resources ( oil and gas), fruits and vegetables while the United States had manufacturing. Mexico had to be brought up to speed in order to have a fair exchange. The dollar was too strong for Canada or Mexico to conform to, and the United States was not going to convert to another currency.   NAFTA was ratified under the Clinton administration but spearheaded by Bush. A strong dollar combined with a large population of uneducated agricultural workers always makes it cheaper to build somewhere else.

Don’t get me wrong, the TPP had some ugly parts to it, and that’s what you get when negotiations are done is secret amongst the multinational corporations. Perhaps most shockingly, the TPP would have allowed corporations to sue governments before tribunals of three corporate lawyers, essentially creating an unaccountable, shadow legal system outside of our traditional courts to punish governments that pass laws that corporations don’t like. Now that is something Trump never talked about during the election, but then again, neither did HRC.

Treaties, whether it’s NATO, NAFTA, or the TPP exist because it is a way to standardize trade laws, reduce costs, easier to export items, and to combat other trade agreements. TPP was designed to keep America ahead of Chinese and Russian trade agreements that may undermine it.

China is also part of another 16 nation trade group called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

The United States comes from a standpoint that since we have the single most largest economy in the world, that we are automatically the center of every trade partnerships, whether we join it or not. If we go down the road Trump plans to follow, we will quickly find that economic leadership be challenged in ways that we have no answer to… Economic alliances are just as important as wartime strategic alliances… Always remember that.

 

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This entry was posted on November 28, 2016 by in Politics, World View and tagged , , , , .
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